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Health of Stock Market for week 20 of 2012 |
| Posted by GoodTrader on Sun, 13 May 2012 , Add your Comments ! |
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 Welcome to a new edition of Health of Stock Market.
The Market Conditions in the Short Term determines the labeled for the week ahead on the Stock Market. This week the market action puts the label in Bearish Trend.
Short Term
There have been no changes in short-term trend, the trend remains bearish.
Not is a good time to buy shares in the equity market. Patience is a must to trading the market succesfully.
Health of the Stock Market
This weekly indicator now has a value of 25%, worse than last week.
The health of the market has deteriorated significantly this week.
It is considered that the stock market is in good health when the indicator is above 70%.
Market Risk
For the month of May the Market Risk remains green.
The Market Risk indicator is green since January 2012.
When the Market Risk is red, you have to be careful and reduce exposure to the equity market.
Note that this indicator is updated only the first of each month. For the short term risk see the VIX below.
The Investor Fear Gauge
The VIX has risen this week and gives indications of market risk. It is outside the safe area.
Seasonal Cycles
There is an annual cycle that I have personally verified with data from January 1988 to December 2011 (24 full years) of some market indexes.
I have also reviewed information regarding the famous cycle of 4 years and the historical evidence is impressive.
The result of all this leads to this section. Note that this is historical averages, what is happening today in the market can be very different from what happened in the past.
The Annual Seasonal Cycle for the month of May is Bullish.
The Four-year Cycle is in Bullish mode.
Broad Market Indexes
Emerging Markets (EEM) has lost his average of 200 sessions.
The Nasdaq 100 has fallen -0.83% in the week, the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index has fallen -0.22%. Emerging markets (EEM) has fallen -3.37% during the week.
Market Sectors
Biotech is the sector more highlighted this week.
Happy trading! |
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| - This post has been useful to me ! |
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| Related posts that may interest you : |
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| - Health of Stock Market for week 19 of 2012 |
| - Health of Stock Market for week 18 of 2012 |
| - Health of Stock Market for week 17 of 2012 |
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| Posted under the following tags : Market Timing , Health , Permalink |
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Are You Able to Stay Out of the Markets? |
| Posted by GoodTrader on Tue, 08 May 2012 , Add your Comments ! |
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One of the things that every trader must learn is to stay out of markets. This is one of the keys that you must master if you want to become a successful trader.
You have to be alert because it is easy and dangerous to get caught up in the excitement of trading.
The emotions you feel being an active part of the market dynamics can hurt your account if you not able of stay out of the market in dangerous times.
I suffered serious losses in my trading before learning to stay out of the market when conditions are not appropriate. This was mainly due for three reasons:
- Not having a Market Timing Tool to give me notice that market conditions had changed.
- Open the trades on the markets without a method, ruled only by emotions and not for a money profit.
- Listen to myself and try to satisfy my psychological needs rather than be aware of market behavior.
I explain in more detail these reasons below.
Market Timing Tool
Not having a market timing tool it's like if you jump from a ship at sea, and when you reach the water you realize that you do not know swim.
The market has no mercy on the inexperienced traders who can not swim in troubled waters.
If you do not have a tool to give you warning signs that the market situation has changed, it will be very difficult for you to stay off the market when the situation requires.
The more accurate this tool, the greater the percentage of winning trades that you are able to achieve in your trading. It took me years of market research to reach the point of developing a reliable Market Timing tool.
You can see the result of this work in the weekly commentary "Health of Stock Market for week...". If you follow it for a while, you will notice the ability of my market timing tools to avoid the bad times.
You must develop your own methods or rely on what others are willing to share with you, but above all do not trade in the stock market without a market timing tool to help you stay out of the market when bad times come.
Trading Method
Operate in markets without a set of rules that guide your actions is like trying to drive a boat without a rudder. The waves and currents will take your boat to anywhere and most likely you end up stranded on a reef.
Your trading method should tell you what conditions must be meet in order to open a trade and what conditions are needed to close a trade.
There is no place for emotions in the markets. Follow a set of objective and well-tested rules is what is going to let the money grow in your account.
With a trading method in which a trade must meet certain conditions before they can be opened, you will be able to stay out of assets that do not show enough strength.
With rules that force you to close the trades when they start to lose money, you will go out off the market before suffering significant damage in your account.
Listen the Market Behavior
The ship's captain should be aware of the weather situation, because a storm can come and change sea conditions at any time. If the captain fails to fulfill its duties, the ship will not reach its destination.
The Market Timing tools and the Trading Method help you to listen the market behavior and fulfill your trading duties, but it requires discipline to not fall in the lazy and stop doing what it takes to succeed.
Become more aware of yourself and your needs rather than be aware of market behavior does not give money.
You must be consistent listening to the market to get out of it when hard times come. Otherwise you will not know when the storm comes until it's too late.
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| - This post has been useful to me ! |
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| - Are Momentum Stocks the Best Choice? |
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| - Powerful Tool for Traders |
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| Posted under the following tags : Learning , Market Conditions , Permalink |
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Health of Stock Market for week 19 of 2012 |
| Posted by GoodTrader on Sun, 06 May 2012 , Add your Comments ! |
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Welcome to a new edition of Health of Stock Market.
Today I add a new section on "Health of Stock Market". This is a section that incorporated the Seasonal Cycles based on historical data.
Get a sense of what generally happened in the past enriches the perception of what is happening now in the markets.
Let's start!
The Market Conditions in the Short Term determines the labeled for the week ahead on the Stock Market. This week the market action puts the label in Bearish Trend.
Short Term
The bull market has lasted a week. A turn to the downward puts the short-term indicators red again.
Health of the Stock Market
This weekly indicator now has a value of 50%, worse than last week.
The health of the market has fallen in a week more than she won in the previous two weeks.
It is considered that the stock market is in good health when the indicator is above 70%.
Market Risk
For the month of May the Market Risk remains green.
The Market Risk indicator is green since January 2012.
When the Market Risk is red, you have to be careful and reduce exposure to the equity market.
The Investor Fear Gauge
The VIX has risen this week and gives indications of risk. It is outside the safe area.
Seasonal Cycles
There is an annual cycle that I have personally verified with data from January 1988 to December 2011 (24 full years) of some market indexes.
I have also reviewed information regarding the famous cycle of 4 years and the historical evidence is impressive.
The result of all this leads to this section. Note that this is historical averages, what is happening today in the market can be very different from what happened in the past.
The Annual Seasonal Cycle for the month of May is Bullish.
The Four-year Cycle is in Bullish mode.
Broad Market Indexes
The Nasdaq 100 lost for the second time in less than a month his average of 50 sessions.
The Nasdaq 100 has fallen -3.77% in the week, the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index has fallen -4.07%. Emerging markets (EEM) has fallen -2.25% during the week.
Market Sectors
There are no highlighted sectors this week.
Happy trading! |
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| - This post has been useful to me ! |
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| Related posts that may interest you : |
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| - Health of Stock Market for week 18 of 2012 |
| - Health of Stock Market for week 17 of 2012 |
| - Health of Stock Market for week 16 of 2012 |
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| Posted under the following tags : Market Timing , Health , Permalink |
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3 High Momentum Stocks |
| Posted by GoodTrader on Tue, 01 May 2012 , Add your Comments ! |
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On the recent post - Are Momentum Stocks the Best Choice? I give my reasons for selecting stocks with high momentum.
Today I show the charts of 3 stocks that are on my list of the 100 stocks with high momentum on which I can open a trade.
ACFN - Acorn Energy, Inc. From 4.51 to 12.57 in 6 months, +178.71%.
ANIK - Anika Therapeutics, Inc. From 7.18 to 17.24 in 6 months, +140.11%.
ELLI - Ellie Mae Inc. From 5.13 to 13.46 in 6 months, +162.38%.
You want to have the best in your list. Why settle for low yield stocks? |
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| - Cemex S.A. a good trade |
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| Posted under the following tags : Stock Talk , Momentum Stocks , Permalink |
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